Independent Research
Research at the intersection of foreign investment screening, critical supply chain analysis, and defense economics — built from primary-source government data. Four papers published on SSRN. Two open-source computational tools. Compound detection probability: 3.6%.
Research Papers
Four empirical papers forming a cohesive research programme on foreign agricultural land oversight. Each paper is organized with its DOI, replication repositories, and associated policy articles.
Monte Carlo permutation testing of 171 Chinese-linked AFIDA holdings against 71 CONUS installations. Enrichment ratios of 17.6× at 25 miles and 8.8× at 50 miles (p<0.001). First peer-reviewed spatial hypothesis test applied to AFIDA data.
Network analysis of 554 Chinese-linked entities across 12.3 million ownership edges via SECMap. Finding: 92.7% of Chinese-linked AFIDA entities have no SEC filing presence and are structurally invisible to federal beneficial ownership analysis.
Counterfactual jurisdiction analysis of 230 Appendix A installations across four regulatory regimes. 50.4% of counties remain outside CFIUS jurisdiction. Part 1→Part 2 reclassification would gain 25.2pp coverage. Compound detection probability: 3.6%.
Identifies 1,637 critical supply chain dependencies across seven sectors using primary-source data from thirteen U.S. government agencies. Introduces the Mutual Threshold Saturation (MTS) doctrine — compound vulnerability architecture where unilateral economic coercion is structurally self-deterring.
Tools & Data
Open-source computational tools and datasets. All analysis is reproducible from publicly available government data.
Deterministic beneficial ownership chain tracing through SEC EDGAR filings. 258 automated tests. Traces chains through adversarial nations, conduit jurisdictions, and opacity havens. Primary instrument for Paper 2.
→ github.com/rjgreenresearch/secmapPython 3.10+ · 258 tests · Apache 2.0
Supply chain cascade modeling and strategic decision framework. Models compound vulnerability where every major economy holds leverage and is simultaneously vulnerable. Primary instrument for Paper 4.
→ github.com/rjgreenresearch/mts-doctrine-simulatorPython 3.10+ · 98 tests · Apache 2.0
Counterfactual regulatory simulation code, geocoded Appendix A database, distance distribution data, and state restriction panel. Companion to Paper 3.
→ github.com/rjgreenresearch/cfius-jurisdiction-analysisPython 3.10+ · CSV datasets · Apache 2.0
Monte Carlo permutation testing framework, installation coordinates, enrichment ratio computation, and multi-country comparative benchmarking. Companion to Paper 1.
→ github.com/rjgreenresearch/afida-spatial-analysisPython 3.10+ · NumPy · Pandas · SciPy
About
I am an independent researcher working at the intersection of spatial econometrics, supply chain vulnerability analysis, and national security economics. My research uses primary-source government data — USDA AFIDA filings, SEC EDGAR ownership networks, CFIUS regulatory publications, and agency-specific supply chain assessments — to address questions that existing analytical institutions are structured to miss.
My military career began as a U.S. Army Air Defense Artillery officer during the Cold War and ended in the Desert Storm/Desert Shield era in the Florida Army National Guard. Two decades in defense systems engineering followed, building and analyzing complex technical systems for government and enterprise clients. This background informs both the questions I ask and the standards I apply: every claim must survive scrutiny from professionals who have lived in these environments.
The research on this site originated from an unusual pathway. While developing The Silent Conquest, a four-book geopolitical thriller series, I constructed intelligence-style analytical documents that required real methodology applied to real data. The fictional economist's spatial analysis framework produced significant results when validated against USDA primary data. The Mutual Threshold Saturation doctrine — conceived as a narrative device — proved to describe a measurable structural condition. The fiction generated the hypotheses; the research tests them.
I hold an MBA from the University of Central Florida and am preparing a PhD dissertation by published work in applied econometrics, with a focus on spatial analysis of foreign direct investment patterns as they relate to national security. Planned supervisor: Dr. Spinder Dhaliwal, University of Westminster.
Education
Service & Experience
Fiction